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Racing Ferrol vs Badajoz — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Racing Ferrol
Racing Ferrol
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Badajoz
Badajoz
5/14/2023Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 36Estadio Municipal de A Malata

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Racing Ferrol48%
×Draw28%
Badajoz24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Racing Ferrol
1.34
Badajoz
0.85

Racing Ferrol creates 58% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 37 away

creates per match

Racing Ferrol
1.41
Badajoz
0.76

allows per match

Racing Ferrol
0.94
Badajoz
1.27

finishing

Racing Ferrol+0.00on par
Badajoz+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Racing Ferrol ↓

Badajoz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Racing Ferrol or draw
76%
Racing Ferrol or Badajoz
72%
Draw or Badajoz
52%

Winning margin

Racing Ferrol wins by 2+
23%
Badajoz wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Racing Ferrol 1+ goals
74%
Racing Ferrol 2+ goals
39%
Racing Ferrol 3+ goals
15%
Badajoz 1+ goals
57%
Badajoz 2+ goals
21%
Badajoz 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Racing Ferrol (draw refunded)
67%
Badajoz (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Racing Ferrol at home — creates 1.41, concedes 0.94 · 82 matches

Badajoz away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.27 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Racing Ferrol attack 1.41 + Badajoz defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.34

Badajoz attack 0.76 + Racing Ferrol defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Racing Ferrol scores more
48%
level
28%
Badajoz scores more
24%

Racing Ferrol at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Racing Ferrol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Racing Ferrol vs Badajoz

Racing Ferrol beat Badajoz 2-1 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on May 14, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de A Malata in Ferrol.