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Racing Ferrol vs Atlético Madrid II — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Racing Ferrol
Racing Ferrol
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Atlético Madrid II
Atlético Madrid II
10/20/2019Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 9Estadio Municipal de A Malata

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Racing Ferrol39%
×Draw27%
Atlético Madrid II34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Racing Ferrol
1.32
Atlético Madrid II
1.20

Racing Ferrol creates 10% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 13 away

creates per match

Racing Ferrol
1.41
Atlético Madrid II
1.46

allows per match

Racing Ferrol
0.94
Atlético Madrid II
1.23

finishing

Racing Ferrol+0.00on par
Atlético Madrid II+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Racing Ferrol ↓

Atlético Madrid II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Racing Ferrol or draw
66%
Racing Ferrol or Atlético Madrid II
73%
Draw or Atlético Madrid II
61%

Winning margin

Racing Ferrol wins by 2+
18%
Atlético Madrid II wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Racing Ferrol 1+ goals
73%
Racing Ferrol 2+ goals
38%
Racing Ferrol 3+ goals
15%
Atlético Madrid II 1+ goals
70%
Atlético Madrid II 2+ goals
34%
Atlético Madrid II 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Racing Ferrol (draw refunded)
54%
Atlético Madrid II (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Racing Ferrol at home — creates 1.41, concedes 0.94 · 82 matches

Atlético Madrid II away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.23 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Racing Ferrol attack 1.41 + Atlético Madrid II defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.32

Atlético Madrid II attack 1.46 + Racing Ferrol defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Racing Ferrol scores more
39%
level
27%
Atlético Madrid II scores more
34%

Racing Ferrol at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Racing Ferrol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División RFEF - Group 1: Racing Ferrol 1–1 Atlético Madrid II

Racing Ferrol and Atlético Madrid II drew 1-1 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on October 20, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de A Malata in Ferrol.