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Racing Ferrol vs Athletic Club II — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Racing Ferrol
Racing Ferrol
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Athletic Club II
Athletic Club II
1/10/2026Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 19Estadio Municipal da Malata

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Racing Ferrol47%
×Draw27%
Athletic Club II26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Racing Ferrol
1.43
Athletic Club II
0.98

Racing Ferrol creates 46% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 56 away

creates per match

Racing Ferrol
1.41
Athletic Club II
1.02

allows per match

Racing Ferrol
0.94
Athletic Club II
1.45

finishing

Racing Ferrol+0.00on par
Athletic Club II+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Racing Ferrol ↓

Athletic Club II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Racing Ferrol or draw
74%
Racing Ferrol or Athletic Club II
73%
Draw or Athletic Club II
53%

Winning margin

Racing Ferrol wins by 2+
23%
Athletic Club II wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Racing Ferrol 1+ goals
76%
Racing Ferrol 2+ goals
42%
Racing Ferrol 3+ goals
17%
Athletic Club II 1+ goals
62%
Athletic Club II 2+ goals
26%
Athletic Club II 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Racing Ferrol (draw refunded)
65%
Athletic Club II (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Racing Ferrol at home — creates 1.41, concedes 0.94 · 82 matches

Athletic Club II away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.45 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Racing Ferrol attack 1.41 + Athletic Club II defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.43

Athletic Club II attack 1.02 + Racing Ferrol defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Racing Ferrol scores more
47%
level
27%
Athletic Club II scores more
26%

Racing Ferrol at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Racing Ferrol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División RFEF - Group 1: Racing Ferrol 0–1 Athletic Club II

Athletic Club II beat Racing Ferrol 1-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on January 10, 2026.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal da Malata in Ferrol.