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Racing Ferrol vs Arenas Getxo — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Racing Ferrol
Racing Ferrol
Preview
16:00
Arenas Getxo
Arenas Getxo
2/21/2027Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 25Estadio Municipal da Malata
53%
Racing Ferrol
model favours
53%26%21%
1–0
likely score
57%
under 2.5 goals
45%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Racing Ferrol53%
×Draw26%
Arenas Getxo21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Racing Ferrol
1.54
Arenas Getxo
0.86

Racing Ferrol creates 79% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 19 away

creates per match

Racing Ferrol
1.41
Arenas Getxo
0.79

allows per match

Racing Ferrol
0.94
Arenas Getxo
1.68

finishing

Racing Ferrol+0.00on par
Arenas Getxo+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Racing Ferrol ↓

Arenas Getxo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Racing Ferrol or draw
79%
Racing Ferrol or Arenas Getxo
74%
Draw or Arenas Getxo
47%

Winning margin

Racing Ferrol wins by 2+
28%
Arenas Getxo wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Racing Ferrol 1+ goals
79%
Racing Ferrol 2+ goals
45%
Racing Ferrol 3+ goals
20%
Arenas Getxo 1+ goals
58%
Arenas Getxo 2+ goals
21%
Arenas Getxo 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Racing Ferrol (draw refunded)
72%
Arenas Getxo (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Racing Ferrol at home — creates 1.41, concedes 0.94 · 82 matches

Arenas Getxo away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.68 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Racing Ferrol attack 1.41 + Arenas Getxo defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.54

Arenas Getxo attack 0.79 + Racing Ferrol defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Racing Ferrol scores more
53%
level
26%
Arenas Getxo scores more
21%

Racing Ferrol at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Racing Ferrol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Ferrol
LDDDD
Getxo
WDDLW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Racing Ferrol vs Arenas Getxo — Match Preview

Racing Ferrol face Arenas Getxo on February 21, 2027 in this Primera División RFEF - Group 1 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Racing Ferrol host Arenas Getxo at Estadio Municipal da Malata.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.