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Arenas Getxo vs Racing Ferrol — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Arenas Getxo
Arenas Getxo
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Racing Ferrol
Racing Ferrol
5/8/2026Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 36Estadio Municipal de Fadura

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Arenas Getxo39%
×Draw27%
Racing Ferrol33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Arenas Getxo
1.28
Racing Ferrol
1.16

Arenas Getxo creates 10% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 83 away

creates per match

Arenas Getxo
1.63
Racing Ferrol
1.10

allows per match

Arenas Getxo
1.21
Racing Ferrol
0.93

finishing

Arenas Getxo+0.00on par
Racing Ferrol+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arenas Getxo ↓

Racing Ferrol →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Arenas Getxo or draw
67%
Arenas Getxo or Racing Ferrol
73%
Draw or Racing Ferrol
61%

Winning margin

Arenas Getxo wins by 2+
17%
Racing Ferrol wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Arenas Getxo 1+ goals
72%
Arenas Getxo 2+ goals
37%
Arenas Getxo 3+ goals
14%
Racing Ferrol 1+ goals
69%
Racing Ferrol 2+ goals
32%
Racing Ferrol 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Arenas Getxo (draw refunded)
54%
Racing Ferrol (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arenas Getxo at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.21 · 19 matches

Racing Ferrol away — creates 1.10, concedes 0.93 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arenas Getxo attack 1.63 + Racing Ferrol defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.28

Racing Ferrol attack 1.10 + Arenas Getxo defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Arenas Getxo scores more
39%
level
27%
Racing Ferrol scores more
33%

Arenas Getxo at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Arenas Getxo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Arenas Getxo vs Racing Ferrol

Arenas Getxo and Racing Ferrol drew 1-1 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on May 8, 2026.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Fadura in Getxo.