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Racing Ferrol vs Alcorcon — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Racing Ferrol
Racing Ferrol
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Alcorcon
Alcorcon
12/17/2022Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 17Estadio Municipal de A Malata

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Racing Ferrol35%
×Draw29%
Alcorcon36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Racing Ferrol
1.07
Alcorcon
1.10

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 82 home / 19 away

creates per match

Racing Ferrol
1.41
Alcorcon
1.26

allows per match

Racing Ferrol
0.94
Alcorcon
0.74

finishing

Racing Ferrol+0.00on par
Alcorcon+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Racing Ferrol ↓

Alcorcon →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–113%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Racing Ferrol or draw
64%
Racing Ferrol or Alcorcon
71%
Draw or Alcorcon
65%

Winning margin

Racing Ferrol wins by 2+
14%
Alcorcon wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Racing Ferrol 1+ goals
66%
Racing Ferrol 2+ goals
29%
Racing Ferrol 3+ goals
9%
Alcorcon 1+ goals
67%
Alcorcon 2+ goals
30%
Alcorcon 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Racing Ferrol (draw refunded)
49%
Alcorcon (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Racing Ferrol at home — creates 1.41, concedes 0.94 · 82 matches

Alcorcon away — creates 1.26, concedes 0.74 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Racing Ferrol attack 1.41 + Alcorcon defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 1.07

Alcorcon attack 1.26 + Racing Ferrol defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Racing Ferrol scores more
35%
level
29%
Alcorcon scores more
36%

Alcorcon at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Alcorcon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División RFEF - Group 1: Racing Ferrol 1–2 Alcorcon

Alcorcon beat Racing Ferrol 2-1 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on December 17, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de A Malata in Ferrol.