Racing FC Union Luxembourg 2–1 Union Titus Petange

Racing FC Union Luxembourg

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Union Titus Petange

Y. Mabella 60'

O. Mazié 53'

M. Kamavuaka 79'

9/29/2024

National Division · Round 9Stade Achille Hammerel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 110+ matches

Racing FC Union Luxembourg44%

×Draw24%

Union Titus Petange31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Racing FC Union LuxembourgExpected goals in this matchUnion Titus Petange

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.61

1.31

Racing FC Union Luxembourg

1.61

Union Titus Petange

1.31

Racing FC Union Luxembourg creates 23% more chances

Season form · 116 home / 110 away

1.65

creates per match

1.26

1.37

allows per match

1.58

creates per match

Racing FC Union Luxembourg

1.65

Union Titus Petange

1.26

allows per match

Racing FC Union Luxembourg

1.37

Union Titus Petange

1.58

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Racing FC Union Luxembourg+0.00on par

Union Titus Petange+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Racing FC Union Luxembourg ↓

Union Titus Petange →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Racing FC Union Luxembourg or draw

69%

Racing FC Union Luxembourg or Union Titus Petange

76%

Draw or Union Titus Petange

56%

Winning margin

Racing FC Union Luxembourg wins by 2+

23%

Union Titus Petange wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Racing FC Union Luxembourg 1+ goals

80%

Racing FC Union Luxembourg 2+ goals

48%

Racing FC Union Luxembourg 3+ goals

22%

Union Titus Petange 1+ goals

73%

Union Titus Petange 2+ goals

38%

Union Titus Petange 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Racing FC Union Luxembourg (draw refunded)

59%

Union Titus Petange (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Racing FC Union Luxembourg at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.37 · 116 matches

Union Titus Petange away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.58 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Racing FC Union Luxembourg attack 1.65 + Union Titus Petange defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.61

Union Titus Petange attack 1.26 + Racing FC Union Luxembourg defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Racing FC Union Luxembourg scores more

44%

level

24%

Union Titus Petange scores more

31%

Racing FC Union Luxembourg at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Racing FC Union Luxembourg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

23'

L. Dewalque

39'

V. Trento

46'

D. Ali← F. Shala

53'

O. Mazié

60'

Y. Mabella

61'

S. Sarr← B. Muratović

67'

António Gomes← D. Amiri

67'

M. Chafaa← D. Sabotic

74'

L. Elshan← Kai Merk

77'

F. Fonrose← L. Dewalque

79'

M. Kamavuaka

81'

A. Delferriere

84'

M. Seydi← B. Chibani

87'

H. Dupays

90+1'

A. Dalil

90+2'

D. Ahmetxhekaj

90+2'

T. Hermandung

90+2'

90+6'

J. Mawatu

Racing

Union

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

Manager: Y. Kakoko

67'▲António Gomes←▼D. Amiri

77'▲F. Fonrose←▼L. Dewalque

84'▲M. Seydi←▼B. Chibani

Racing FC Union Luxembourg substitutes

GomesFonroseSeydi

Manager: Ribeirinho

46'▲D. Ali←▼F. Shala

61'▲S. Sarr←▼B. Muratović

67'▲M. Chafaa←▼D. Sabotic

74'▲L. Elshan←▼Kai Merk

Union Titus Petange substitutes

AliSarrChafaaElshan

National Division: Racing FC Union Luxembourg 2–1 Union Titus Petange

Racing FC Union Luxembourg beat Union Titus Petange 2-1 in National Division on September 29, 2024.

Goals: O. Mazié (53'), Y. Mabella (60'), M. Kamavuaka (79').

The match was played at Stade Achille Hammerel in Luxembourg.

Racing FC Union Luxembourg vs Union Titus Petange — National Division 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

National Division: Racing FC Union Luxembourg 2–1 Union Titus Petange