Racing FC Union Luxembourg 2–1 Rodange 91

Racing FC Union Luxembourg

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Rodange 91

K. Rossi 64', 1'

J. Ganser 90+1'

2/6/2022

National Division · Round 16Stade Achille Hammerel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Racing FC Union Luxembourg57%

×Draw22%

Rodange 9122%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Racing FC Union LuxembourgExpected goals in this matchRodange 91

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.00

1.16

Racing FC Union Luxembourg

2.00

Rodange 91

1.16

Racing FC Union Luxembourg creates 72% more chances

Season form · 116 home / 66 away

1.65

creates per match

0.95

1.37

allows per match

2.35

creates per match

Racing FC Union Luxembourg

1.65

Rodange 91

0.95

allows per match

Racing FC Union Luxembourg

1.37

Rodange 91

2.35

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Racing FC Union Luxembourg+0.00on par

Rodange 91+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Racing FC Union Luxembourg ↓

Rodange 91 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Racing FC Union Luxembourg or draw

78%

Racing FC Union Luxembourg or Rodange 91

78%

Draw or Rodange 91

43%

Winning margin

Racing FC Union Luxembourg wins by 2+

34%

Rodange 91 wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Racing FC Union Luxembourg 1+ goals

86%

Racing FC Union Luxembourg 2+ goals

59%

Racing FC Union Luxembourg 3+ goals

32%

Rodange 91 1+ goals

69%

Rodange 91 2+ goals

32%

Rodange 91 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Racing FC Union Luxembourg (draw refunded)

72%

Rodange 91 (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Racing FC Union Luxembourg at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.37 · 116 matches

Rodange 91 away — creates 0.95, concedes 2.35 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Racing FC Union Luxembourg attack 1.65 + Rodange 91 defence 2.35 → ÷2 → 2.00

Rodange 91 attack 0.95 + Racing FC Union Luxembourg defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Racing FC Union Luxembourg scores more

57%

level

22%

Rodange 91 scores more

22%

Racing FC Union Luxembourg at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Racing FC Union Luxembourg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

1'

46'

64'

72'

74'

A. Civovic← J. Makasso

83'

J. Ganser← M. NDiaye

86'

B. Dos Santos← K. NGoma

90+2'

G. Mersch← J. Simon

90+1'

J. Ganser

Racing

Rodange

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽2

▼

Rossi

Manager: J. Saibene

72'▲M. Dembélé←▼K. Rossi

86'▲B. Dos Santos←▼K. NGoma

90+2'▲G. Mersch←▼J. Simon

Racing FC Union Luxembourg substitutes

DembéléSantosMersch

Manager: R. Martinelli

46'▲L. Rakic←▼C. Semedo

74'▲A. Civovic←▼J. Makasso

83'▲J. Ganser←▼M. NDiaye

Rodange 91 substitutes

RakicCivovicGanser

National Division: Racing FC Union Luxembourg 2–1 Rodange 91

Racing FC Union Luxembourg beat Rodange 91 2-1 in National Division on February 6, 2022.

Goals: K. Rossi (1', 64'), J. Ganser (90+1').

The match was played at Stade Achille Hammerel in Luxembourg.

Racing FC Union Luxembourg vs Rodange 91 — National Division 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

National Division: Racing FC Union Luxembourg 2–1 Rodange 91