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Racing de Casablanca vs Kasba Tadla — Botola 2 2025

Racing de Casablanca
Racing de Casablanca
FT
0 – 1
Kasba Tadla
Kasba Tadla
2/16/2019Botola 2Botola 2 · Round 20Stade Père-Jégo (Casablanca)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Racing de Casablanca46%
×Draw31%
Kasba Tadla23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Racing de Casablanca
1.13
Kasba Tadla
0.71

Racing de Casablanca creates 59% more chances

Season form · 121 home / 15 away

creates per match

Racing de Casablanca
1.13
Kasba Tadla
0.40

allows per match

Racing de Casablanca
1.01
Kasba Tadla
1.13

finishing

Racing de Casablanca+0.00on par
Kasba Tadla+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Under
  • Under72
  • Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Racing de Casablanca ↓

Kasba Tadla →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
55%45%2.5
28%72%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Racing de Casablanca or draw
77%
Racing de Casablanca or Kasba Tadla
69%
Draw or Kasba Tadla
54%

Winning margin

Racing de Casablanca wins by 2+
19%
Kasba Tadla wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Racing de Casablanca 1+ goals
68%
Racing de Casablanca 2+ goals
31%
Racing de Casablanca 3+ goals
11%
Kasba Tadla 1+ goals
51%
Kasba Tadla 2+ goals
16%
Kasba Tadla 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Racing de Casablanca (draw refunded)
66%
Kasba Tadla (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Racing de Casablanca at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.01 · 121 matches

Kasba Tadla away — creates 0.40, concedes 1.13 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Racing de Casablanca attack 1.13 + Kasba Tadla defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.13

Kasba Tadla attack 0.40 + Racing de Casablanca defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Racing de Casablanca scores more
46%
level
31%
Kasba Tadla scores more
23%

Racing de Casablanca at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Racing de Casablanca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Racing de Casablanca vs Kasba Tadla

Kasba Tadla beat Racing de Casablanca 1-0 in Botola 2 on February 16, 2019.

The match was played at Stade Père-Jégo (Casablanca).