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Racing de Casablanca vs KAC Kenitra — Botola 2 2025

Racing de Casablanca
Racing de Casablanca
FT
2 – 2
KAC Kenitra
KAC Kenitra
2/2/2019Botola 2Botola 2 · Round 18Stade Père-Jégo (Casablanca)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 73+ matches

Racing de Casablanca41%
×Draw29%
KAC Kenitra30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Racing de Casablanca
1.20
KAC Kenitra
0.98

Racing de Casablanca creates 22% more chances

Season form · 120 home / 73 away

creates per match

Racing de Casablanca
1.14
KAC Kenitra
0.93

allows per match

Racing de Casablanca
1.02
KAC Kenitra
1.26

finishing

Racing de Casablanca+0.00on par
KAC Kenitra+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Racing de Casablanca ↓

KAC Kenitra →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Racing de Casablanca or draw
70%
Racing de Casablanca or KAC Kenitra
71%
Draw or KAC Kenitra
59%

Winning margin

Racing de Casablanca wins by 2+
18%
KAC Kenitra wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Racing de Casablanca 1+ goals
70%
Racing de Casablanca 2+ goals
34%
Racing de Casablanca 3+ goals
12%
KAC Kenitra 1+ goals
62%
KAC Kenitra 2+ goals
26%
KAC Kenitra 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Racing de Casablanca (draw refunded)
58%
KAC Kenitra (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Racing de Casablanca at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.02 · 120 matches

KAC Kenitra away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.26 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Racing de Casablanca attack 1.14 + KAC Kenitra defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.20

KAC Kenitra attack 0.93 + Racing de Casablanca defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Racing de Casablanca scores more
41%
level
29%
KAC Kenitra scores more
30%

Racing de Casablanca at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Racing de Casablanca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Racing de Casablanca vs KAC Kenitra

Racing de Casablanca and KAC Kenitra drew 2-2 in Botola 2 on February 2, 2019.

The match was played at Stade Père-Jégo (Casablanca).