KAC Kenitra 3–1 Racing de Casablanca

KAC Kenitra

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Racing de Casablanca

11/8/2025

Botola 2 · Round 7

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 74+ matches

KAC Kenitra43%

×Draw28%

Racing de Casablanca29%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KAC KenitraExpected goals in this matchRacing de Casablanca

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.00

KAC Kenitra

1.27

Racing de Casablanca

1.00

KAC Kenitra creates 27% more chances

Season form · 74 home / 118 away

1.26

creates per match

1.01

1.00

allows per match

1.28

creates per match

KAC Kenitra

1.26

Racing de Casablanca

1.01

allows per match

KAC Kenitra

1.00

Racing de Casablanca

1.28

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

KAC Kenitra+0.00on par

Racing de Casablanca+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KAC Kenitra ↓

Racing de Casablanca →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

KAC Kenitra or draw

71%

KAC Kenitra or Racing de Casablanca

72%

Draw or Racing de Casablanca

57%

Winning margin

KAC Kenitra wins by 2+

19%

Racing de Casablanca wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

KAC Kenitra 1+ goals

72%

KAC Kenitra 2+ goals

36%

KAC Kenitra 3+ goals

14%

Racing de Casablanca 1+ goals

63%

Racing de Casablanca 2+ goals

26%

Racing de Casablanca 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

KAC Kenitra (draw refunded)

59%

Racing de Casablanca (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KAC Kenitra at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.00 · 74 matches

Racing de Casablanca away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.28 · 118 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KAC Kenitra attack 1.26 + Racing de Casablanca defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.27

Racing de Casablanca attack 1.01 + KAC Kenitra defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

KAC Kenitra scores more

43%

level

28%

Racing de Casablanca scores more

29%

KAC Kenitra at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "KAC Kenitra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff