Racing de Casablanca 0–1 Difaa EL Jadida

Racing de Casablanca

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Difaa EL Jadida

9/23/2023

Botola 2 · Round 3Stade Père-Jégo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Racing de Casablanca33%

×Draw33%

Difaa EL Jadida34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Racing de CasablancaExpected goals in this matchDifaa EL Jadida

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.90

0.91

Racing de Casablanca

0.90

Difaa EL Jadida

0.91

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 121 home / 15 away

1.13

creates per match

0.80

1.01

allows per match

0.67

creates per match

Racing de Casablanca

1.13

Difaa EL Jadida

0.80

allows per match

Racing de Casablanca

1.01

Difaa EL Jadida

0.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Racing de Casablanca+0.00on par

Difaa EL Jadida+0.00on par

Total goals

Under73
Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No65
Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Racing de Casablanca ↓

Difaa EL Jadida →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–016%

0–115%

0–27%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–07%

2–16%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (16%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

84%16%1.5

54%46%2.5

27%73%3.5

11%89%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Racing de Casablanca or draw

66%

Racing de Casablanca or Difaa EL Jadida

67%

Draw or Difaa EL Jadida

67%

Winning margin

Racing de Casablanca wins by 2+

12%

Difaa EL Jadida wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Racing de Casablanca 1+ goals

59%

Racing de Casablanca 2+ goals

23%

Racing de Casablanca 3+ goals

6%

Difaa EL Jadida 1+ goals

60%

Difaa EL Jadida 2+ goals

23%

Difaa EL Jadida 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Racing de Casablanca (draw refunded)

50%

Difaa EL Jadida (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

22%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Racing de Casablanca at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.01 · 121 matches

Difaa EL Jadida away — creates 0.80, concedes 0.67 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Racing de Casablanca attack 1.13 + Difaa EL Jadida defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.90

Difaa EL Jadida attack 0.80 + Racing de Casablanca defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 34%?"

Racing de Casablanca scores more

33%

level

33%

Difaa EL Jadida scores more

34%

Difaa EL Jadida at 34% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 34% does not mean "Difaa EL Jadida will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff