Racing d'Abidjan 1–0 Sporting Gagnoa

Racing d'Abidjan

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Sporting Gagnoa

10/18/2023

Ligue 1 · Round 3Stade Robert Champroux

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Racing d'Abidjan39%

×Draw29%

Sporting Gagnoa32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Racing d'AbidjanExpected goals in this matchSporting Gagnoa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.15

1.01

Racing d'Abidjan

1.15

Sporting Gagnoa

1.01

Racing d'Abidjan creates 14% more chances

Season form · 88 home / 59 away

1.22

creates per match

0.92

1.10

allows per match

1.07

creates per match

Racing d'Abidjan

1.22

Sporting Gagnoa

0.92

allows per match

Racing d'Abidjan

1.10

Sporting Gagnoa

1.07

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Racing d'Abidjan+0.00on par

Sporting Gagnoa+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Racing d'Abidjan ↓

Sporting Gagnoa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Racing d'Abidjan or draw

68%

Racing d'Abidjan or Sporting Gagnoa

71%

Draw or Sporting Gagnoa

61%

Winning margin

Racing d'Abidjan wins by 2+

16%

Sporting Gagnoa wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Racing d'Abidjan 1+ goals

68%

Racing d'Abidjan 2+ goals

32%

Racing d'Abidjan 3+ goals

11%

Sporting Gagnoa 1+ goals

64%

Sporting Gagnoa 2+ goals

27%

Sporting Gagnoa 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Racing d'Abidjan (draw refunded)

55%

Sporting Gagnoa (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Racing d'Abidjan at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.10 · 88 matches

Sporting Gagnoa away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.07 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Racing d'Abidjan attack 1.22 + Sporting Gagnoa defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.15

Sporting Gagnoa attack 0.92 + Racing d'Abidjan defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Racing d'Abidjan scores more

39%

level

29%

Sporting Gagnoa scores more

32%

Racing d'Abidjan at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Racing d'Abidjan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff