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Racing d'Abidjan vs AFAD — Ligue 1 2019

Racing d'Abidjan
Racing d'Abidjan
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
AFAD
AFAD
9/25/2024Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 1Stade Félix Houphouët-Boigny

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 88+ matches

Racing d'Abidjan33%
×Draw30%
AFAD38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Racing d'Abidjan
1.02
AFAD
1.12

AFAD creates 10% more chances

Season form · 88 home / 93 away

creates per match

Racing d'Abidjan
1.22
AFAD
1.14

allows per match

Racing d'Abidjan
1.10
AFAD
0.81

finishing

Racing d'Abidjan+0.00on par
AFAD+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Racing d'Abidjan ↓

AFAD →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–113%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Racing d'Abidjan or draw
62%
Racing d'Abidjan or AFAD
70%
Draw or AFAD
67%

Winning margin

Racing d'Abidjan wins by 2+
12%
AFAD wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Racing d'Abidjan 1+ goals
64%
Racing d'Abidjan 2+ goals
27%
Racing d'Abidjan 3+ goals
8%
AFAD 1+ goals
67%
AFAD 2+ goals
31%
AFAD 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Racing d'Abidjan (draw refunded)
46%
AFAD (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Racing d'Abidjan at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.10 · 88 matches

AFAD away — creates 1.14, concedes 0.81 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Racing d'Abidjan attack 1.22 + AFAD defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 1.02

AFAD attack 1.14 + Racing d'Abidjan defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Racing d'Abidjan scores more
33%
level
30%
AFAD scores more
38%

AFAD at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "AFAD will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 1: Racing d'Abidjan 1–2 AFAD

AFAD beat Racing d'Abidjan 2-1 in Ligue 1 on September 25, 2024.

The match was played at Stade Félix Houphouët-Boigny in Abidjan.