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Racing d'Abidjan vs Abengourou — Ligue 1 2019

Racing d'Abidjan
Racing d'Abidjan
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Abengourou
Abengourou
4/30/2022Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 18Stade Robert Champroux

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Racing d'Abidjan47%
×Draw28%
Abengourou25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Racing d'Abidjan
1.35
Abengourou
0.91

Racing d'Abidjan creates 48% more chances

Season form · 88 home / 57 away

creates per match

Racing d'Abidjan
1.22
Abengourou
0.72

allows per match

Racing d'Abidjan
1.10
Abengourou
1.49

finishing

Racing d'Abidjan+0.00on par
Abengourou+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Racing d'Abidjan ↓

Abengourou →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Racing d'Abidjan or draw
75%
Racing d'Abidjan or Abengourou
72%
Draw or Abengourou
53%

Winning margin

Racing d'Abidjan wins by 2+
22%
Abengourou wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Racing d'Abidjan 1+ goals
74%
Racing d'Abidjan 2+ goals
39%
Racing d'Abidjan 3+ goals
15%
Abengourou 1+ goals
60%
Abengourou 2+ goals
23%
Abengourou 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Racing d'Abidjan (draw refunded)
65%
Abengourou (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Racing d'Abidjan at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.10 · 88 matches

Abengourou away — creates 0.72, concedes 1.49 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Racing d'Abidjan attack 1.22 + Abengourou defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.35

Abengourou attack 0.72 + Racing d'Abidjan defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Racing d'Abidjan scores more
47%
level
28%
Abengourou scores more
25%

Racing d'Abidjan at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Racing d'Abidjan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 1: Racing d'Abidjan 3–0 Abengourou

Racing d'Abidjan beat Abengourou 3-0 in Ligue 1 on April 30, 2022.

The match was played at Stade Robert Champroux in Abidjan.