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Racing Cordoba vs Sportivo Desamparados — Torneo Federal A 2018

Racing Cordoba
Racing Cordoba
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Sportivo Desamparados
Sportivo Desamparados
11/11/2018Torneo Federal ATorneo Federal A · Zone 3 - 13Estadio Miguel Sancho (Ciudad de Córdoba, Provincia de Córdoba)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Racing Cordoba61%
×Draw25%
Sportivo Desamparados14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Racing Cordoba
1.61
Sportivo Desamparados
0.63

Racing Cordoba creates 156% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 59 away

creates per match

Racing Cordoba
1.88
Sportivo Desamparados
0.66

allows per match

Racing Cordoba
0.60
Sportivo Desamparados
1.34

finishing

Racing Cordoba+0.00on par
Sportivo Desamparados+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Racing Cordoba ↓

Sportivo Desamparados →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–17%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Racing Cordoba or draw
86%
Racing Cordoba or Sportivo Desamparados
75%
Draw or Sportivo Desamparados
39%

Winning margin

Racing Cordoba wins by 2+
34%
Sportivo Desamparados wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Racing Cordoba 1+ goals
80%
Racing Cordoba 2+ goals
48%
Racing Cordoba 3+ goals
22%
Sportivo Desamparados 1+ goals
47%
Sportivo Desamparados 2+ goals
13%
Sportivo Desamparados 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Racing Cordoba (draw refunded)
81%
Sportivo Desamparados (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Racing Cordoba at home — creates 1.88, concedes 0.60 · 48 matches

Sportivo Desamparados away — creates 0.66, concedes 1.34 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Racing Cordoba attack 1.88 + Sportivo Desamparados defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.61

Sportivo Desamparados attack 0.66 + Racing Cordoba defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Racing Cordoba scores more
61%
level
25%
Sportivo Desamparados scores more
14%

Racing Cordoba at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Racing Cordoba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Racing Cordoba 2 – 0 Sportivo Desamparados

Racing Cordoba beat Sportivo Desamparados 2-0 in Torneo Federal A on November 11, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio Miguel Sancho (Ciudad de Córdoba, Provincia de Córdoba).