Racing Cordoba 2–0 Gimnasia Jujuy: Result & Stats

Racing Cordoba

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Gimnasia Jujuy

S. Marfort 88'

B. Nasta 30'

10/8/2023

Primera Nacional · Group B - 33Estadio Miguel Sancho

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 63+ matches

Racing Cordoba49%

×Draw28%

Gimnasia Jujuy23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Racing CordobaExpected goals in this matchGimnasia Jujuy

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

0.80

Racing Cordoba

1.33

Gimnasia Jujuy

0.80

Racing Cordoba creates 66% more chances

Season form · 63 home / 140 away

1.35

creates per match

0.76

0.84

allows per match

1.31

creates per match

Racing Cordoba

1.35

Gimnasia Jujuy

0.76

allows per match

Racing Cordoba

0.84

Gimnasia Jujuy

1.31

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Racing Cordoba+0.00on par

Gimnasia Jujuy+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Racing Cordoba ↓

Gimnasia Jujuy →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Racing Cordoba or draw

77%

Racing Cordoba or Gimnasia Jujuy

72%

Draw or Gimnasia Jujuy

51%

Winning margin

Racing Cordoba wins by 2+

23%

Gimnasia Jujuy wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Racing Cordoba 1+ goals

74%

Racing Cordoba 2+ goals

38%

Racing Cordoba 3+ goals

15%

Gimnasia Jujuy 1+ goals

55%

Gimnasia Jujuy 2+ goals

19%

Gimnasia Jujuy 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Racing Cordoba (draw refunded)

69%

Gimnasia Jujuy (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Racing Cordoba at home — creates 1.35, concedes 0.84 · 63 matches

Gimnasia Jujuy away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.31 · 140 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Racing Cordoba attack 1.35 + Gimnasia Jujuy defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.33

Gimnasia Jujuy attack 0.76 + Racing Cordoba defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Racing Cordoba scores more

49%

level

28%

Gimnasia Jujuy scores more

23%

Racing Cordoba at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Racing Cordoba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

30'

B. Nasta

38'

S. Hernández← F. Maidana

43'

B. Nasta

45+1'

J. Arguello

54'

S. Hernandez

59'

L. Chiozza← I. Ortigoza

59'

N. Miracco← J. Tévez

59'

D. Nakache← F. Brandán

69'

J. Albertinazzi← G. Ferrero

72'

J. Mateo← J. Endrizzi

78'

S. Marfort← A. Berrondo

78'

P. López← A. Oyola

88'

S. Marfort

90'

A. Hernández← A. Gallo

90'

C. Monti← J. Méndez

Racing

Gimnasia

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Manager: P. Llorens

69'▲J. Albertinazzi←▼G. Ferrero

78'▲S. Marfort←▼A. Berrondo

78'▲P. López←▼A. Oyola

90'▲A. Hernández←▼A. Gallo

90'▲C. Monti←▼J. Méndez

Racing Cordoba substitutes

AlbertinazziMarfortLópezHernándezMontiRodríguezRinaudoPombaCastellano

Manager: M. Vázquez

38'▲S. Hernández←▼F. Maidana

59'▲L. Chiozza←▼I. Ortigoza

59'▲N. Miracco←▼J. Tévez

59'▲D. Nakache←▼F. Brandán

72'▲J. Mateo←▼J. Endrizzi

Gimnasia Jujuy substitutes

HernándezChiozzaMiraccoNakacheMateoAbetGonzálezYabaléChiarini