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Racing Cordoba vs Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto — Primera Nacional 2026

Racing Cordoba
Racing Cordoba
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto
Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto
7/28/2024Primera NacionalPrimera Nacional · Round 25Estadio Miguel Sancho

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 63+ matches

Racing Cordoba43%
×Draw31%
Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Racing Cordoba
1.10
Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto
0.79

Racing Cordoba creates 39% more chances

Season form · 63 home / 108 away

creates per match

Racing Cordoba
1.35
Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto
0.75

allows per match

Racing Cordoba
0.84
Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto
0.85

finishing

Racing Cordoba+0.00on par
Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Racing Cordoba ↓

Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–112%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
56%44%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Racing Cordoba or draw
74%
Racing Cordoba or Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto
69%
Draw or Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto
57%

Winning margin

Racing Cordoba wins by 2+
18%
Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Racing Cordoba 1+ goals
67%
Racing Cordoba 2+ goals
30%
Racing Cordoba 3+ goals
10%
Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto 1+ goals
55%
Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto 2+ goals
19%
Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Racing Cordoba (draw refunded)
62%
Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Racing Cordoba at home — creates 1.35, concedes 0.84 · 63 matches

Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto away — creates 0.75, concedes 0.85 · 108 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Racing Cordoba attack 1.35 + Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.10

Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto attack 0.75 + Racing Cordoba defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Racing Cordoba scores more
43%
level
31%
Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto scores more
26%

Racing Cordoba at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Racing Cordoba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Racing Cordoba vs Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto

Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto beat Racing Cordoba 1-0 in Primera Nacional on July 28, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Miguel Sancho in Ciudad de Córdoba, Provincia de Córdoba.