Racing Cordoba 1–1 Chacarita Juniors

Racing Cordoba

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Chacarita Juniors

L. Fernández 4'

R. Blanco 79'

4/18/2023

Primera Nacional · Group B - 10Estadio Miguel Sancho

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 63+ matches

Racing Cordoba47%

×Draw28%

Chacarita Juniors25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Racing CordobaExpected goals in this matchChacarita Juniors

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

0.88

Racing Cordoba

1.31

Chacarita Juniors

0.88

Racing Cordoba creates 49% more chances

Season form · 63 home / 129 away

1.35

creates per match

0.91

0.84

allows per match

1.26

creates per match

Racing Cordoba

1.35

Chacarita Juniors

0.91

allows per match

Racing Cordoba

0.84

Chacarita Juniors

1.26

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Racing Cordoba+0.00on par

Chacarita Juniors+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Racing Cordoba ↓

Chacarita Juniors →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Racing Cordoba or draw

75%

Racing Cordoba or Chacarita Juniors

72%

Draw or Chacarita Juniors

53%

Winning margin

Racing Cordoba wins by 2+

22%

Chacarita Juniors wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Racing Cordoba 1+ goals

73%

Racing Cordoba 2+ goals

38%

Racing Cordoba 3+ goals

14%

Chacarita Juniors 1+ goals

59%

Chacarita Juniors 2+ goals

22%

Chacarita Juniors 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Racing Cordoba (draw refunded)

65%

Chacarita Juniors (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Racing Cordoba at home — creates 1.35, concedes 0.84 · 63 matches

Chacarita Juniors away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.26 · 129 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Racing Cordoba attack 1.35 + Chacarita Juniors defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.31

Chacarita Juniors attack 0.91 + Racing Cordoba defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Racing Cordoba scores more

47%

level

28%

Chacarita Juniors scores more

25%

Racing Cordoba at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Racing Cordoba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'

25'

30'

45+2'

57'

57'

57'

64'

64'

N. Cavagnero← E. Giménez

70'

M. Astina← G. Pugliese

70'

E. Alderete← Á. Cuello

70'

E. Hoyos← M. Rodríguez

76'

C. Monti← A. Berrondo

79'

R. Blanco

81'

L. Gimenez

88'

M. Astina

90+1'

L. Perdomo

90+5'

A. Zanini

90+6'

A. Biggeri

Racing

Chacarita

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

Manager: C. Bossio

30'▲J. Méndez←▼F. Aman

64'▲P. López←▼A. Oyola

64'▲N. Cavagnero←▼E. Giménez

76'▲C. Monti←▼A. Berrondo

Racing Cordoba substitutes

MéndezLópezCavagneroMontiTellasMattaliaGalloCalderónMateo

Manager: A. Biggeri

70'▲M. Astina←▼G. Pugliese

70'▲E. Alderete←▼Á. Cuello

70'▲E. Hoyos←▼M. Rodríguez

Chacarita Juniors substitutes

AstinaAldereteHoyosFernándezLettieriFernándezLosasChavesGómez