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Racing Cordoba vs Alvarado — Primera Nacional 2026

Racing Cordoba
Racing Cordoba
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Alvarado
Alvarado
2/25/2025Primera NacionalPrimera Nacional · Round 3Estadio Miguel Sancho

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 63+ matches

Racing Cordoba51%
×Draw28%
Alvarado21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Racing Cordoba
1.38
Alvarado
0.79

Racing Cordoba creates 75% more chances

Season form · 63 home / 101 away

creates per match

Racing Cordoba
1.35
Alvarado
0.75

allows per match

Racing Cordoba
0.84
Alvarado
1.41

finishing

Racing Cordoba+0.00on par
Alvarado+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Racing Cordoba ↓

Alvarado →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Racing Cordoba or draw
79%
Racing Cordoba or Alvarado
72%
Draw or Alvarado
49%

Winning margin

Racing Cordoba wins by 2+
25%
Alvarado wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Racing Cordoba 1+ goals
75%
Racing Cordoba 2+ goals
40%
Racing Cordoba 3+ goals
16%
Alvarado 1+ goals
55%
Alvarado 2+ goals
19%
Alvarado 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Racing Cordoba (draw refunded)
70%
Alvarado (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Racing Cordoba at home — creates 1.35, concedes 0.84 · 63 matches

Alvarado away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.41 · 101 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Racing Cordoba attack 1.35 + Alvarado defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.38

Alvarado attack 0.75 + Racing Cordoba defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Racing Cordoba scores more
51%
level
28%
Alvarado scores more
21%

Racing Cordoba at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Racing Cordoba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Racing Cordoba vs Alvarado

Racing Cordoba beat Alvarado 2-1 in Primera Nacional on February 25, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Miguel Sancho in Cordoba.