Racing Cordoba 1–3 Agropecuario: Result & Stats

Racing Cordoba

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 0

Agropecuario

2/11/2024

Primera Nacional · Round 2Estadio Miguel Sancho

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 63+ matches

Racing Cordoba48%

×Draw28%

Agropecuario24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Racing CordobaExpected goals in this matchAgropecuario

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

0.84

Racing Cordoba

1.31

Agropecuario

0.84

Racing Cordoba creates 56% more chances

Season form · 63 home / 126 away

1.35

creates per match

0.84

allows per match

1.27

creates per match

Racing Cordoba

1.35

Agropecuario

0.84

allows per match

Racing Cordoba

0.84

Agropecuario

1.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Racing Cordoba+0.00on par

Agropecuario+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Racing Cordoba ↓

Agropecuario →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Racing Cordoba or draw

76%

Racing Cordoba or Agropecuario

72%

Draw or Agropecuario

52%

Winning margin

Racing Cordoba wins by 2+

22%

Agropecuario wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Racing Cordoba 1+ goals

73%

Racing Cordoba 2+ goals

38%

Racing Cordoba 3+ goals

14%

Agropecuario 1+ goals

57%

Agropecuario 2+ goals

21%

Agropecuario 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Racing Cordoba (draw refunded)

67%

Agropecuario (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Racing Cordoba at home — creates 1.35, concedes 0.84 · 63 matches

Agropecuario away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.27 · 126 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Racing Cordoba attack 1.35 + Agropecuario defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.31

Agropecuario attack 0.84 + Racing Cordoba defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Racing Cordoba scores more

48%

level

28%

Agropecuario scores more

24%

Racing Cordoba at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Racing Cordoba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff