Racing Club 0–1 Platense: Result & Stats

Racing Club

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Platense

H. Lamberti 68'

10/15/2021

Liga Profesional Argentina · 2nd Phase - 16Estadio Presidente Juan Domingo Perón

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 21+ matches

Racing Club43%

×Draw30%

Platense27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Racing ClubExpected goals in this matchPlatense

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

0.86

Racing Club

1.17

Platense

0.86

Racing Club creates 36% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 21 away

1.14

creates per match

0.73

0.99

allows per match

1.21

creates per match

Racing Club

1.14

Platense

0.73

allows per match

Racing Club

0.99

Platense

1.21

+0.48scores more than expected

finishing

+0.03on par

finishing

Racing Club+0.48scores more

Platense+0.03on par

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Racing Club ↓

Platense →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–111%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Racing Club or draw

73%

Racing Club or Platense

70%

Draw or Platense

57%

Winning margin

Racing Club wins by 2+

18%

Platense wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Racing Club 1+ goals

69%

Racing Club 2+ goals

33%

Racing Club 3+ goals

11%

Platense 1+ goals

58%

Platense 2+ goals

21%

Platense 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Racing Club (draw refunded)

61%

Platense (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Racing Club at home — creates 1.14, concedes 0.99 · 21 matches

Platense away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.21 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Racing Club attack 1.14 + Platense defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.17

Platense attack 0.73 + Racing Club defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Racing Club scores more

43%

level

30%

Platense scores more

27%

Racing Club at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Racing Club will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

30

L. Sigali

Racing Club · D

7.6

Match Events

11'

Juan Cáceres

15'

Nahuel Iribarren

46'

M. Lovera← C. Alcaraz

59'

J. Novillo← I. Galván

68'

H. Lamberti

72'

T. Sandoval← M. Tissera

72'

F. Baldassarra← N. Bertolo

73'

D. Cvitanich← M. Rojas

74'

B. Garré← T. Chancalay

81'

H. Tijanovich← F. Curuchet

81'

F. Russo← P. Gerzel

87'

J. Correa← J. Cáceres

90'

R. Bochi← I. Gómez

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

RacingPlatense

Overview

69%Possession31%

18Total Shots9

6Corners8

8Fouls7

Shots

18Total Shots9

1On Target2

13Off Target4

4Blocked3

9Inside Box4

9Outside Box5

Passing

69%Possession31%

598Total Passes269

497Accurate Passes174

83%Pass Accuracy65%

Goalkeeping

1Saves1

Discipline

8Fouls7

1Yellow Cards1

0Offsides2