Platense 3–0 Racing Club: Result & Stats

Platense

FT

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Racing Club

5/14/2023

Liga Profesional Argentina · Round 16Estadio Ciudad de Vicente López

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 17+ matches

Platense43%

×Draw30%

Racing Club27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PlatenseExpected goals in this matchRacing Club

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.18

0.86

Platense

1.18

Racing Club

0.86

Platense creates 37% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 21 away

1.05

creates per match

1.06

0.67

allows per match

1.30

creates per match

Platense

1.05

Racing Club

1.06

allows per match

Platense

0.67

Racing Club

1.30

-0.34scores less than expected

finishing

+0.04on par

finishing

Platense-0.34scores less

Racing Club+0.04on par

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Platense ↓

Racing Club →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–111%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Platense or draw

73%

Platense or Racing Club

70%

Draw or Racing Club

57%

Winning margin

Platense wins by 2+

19%

Racing Club wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Platense 1+ goals

69%

Platense 2+ goals

33%

Platense 3+ goals

12%

Racing Club 1+ goals

58%

Racing Club 2+ goals

21%

Racing Club 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Platense (draw refunded)

62%

Racing Club (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Platense at home — creates 1.05, concedes 0.67 · 17 matches

Racing Club away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.30 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Platense attack 1.05 + Racing Club defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.18

Racing Club attack 1.06 + Platense defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Platense scores more

43%

level

30%

Racing Club scores more

27%

Platense at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Platense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff