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Racing Club Res. vs Barracas Central Res. — Reserve League 2022

Racing Club Res.
Racing Club Res.
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Barracas Central Res.
Barracas Central Res.
M. Acevedo 90+4'
A. Urrutia 76'
7/16/2024Reserve LeagueReserve League · 2nd Phase - 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Racing Club Res.53%
×Draw25%
Barracas Central Res.21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Racing Club Res.
1.56
Barracas Central Res.
0.89

Racing Club Res. creates 75% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 61 away

creates per match

Racing Club Res.
1.38
Barracas Central Res.
0.57

allows per match

Racing Club Res.
1.20
Barracas Central Res.
1.74

finishing

Racing Club Res.+0.00on par
Barracas Central Res.+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Racing Club Res. ↓

Barracas Central Res. →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Racing Club Res. or draw
79%
Racing Club Res. or Barracas Central Res.
75%
Draw or Barracas Central Res.
47%

Winning margin

Racing Club Res. wins by 2+
28%
Barracas Central Res. wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Racing Club Res. 1+ goals
79%
Racing Club Res. 2+ goals
46%
Racing Club Res. 3+ goals
21%
Barracas Central Res. 1+ goals
59%
Barracas Central Res. 2+ goals
22%
Barracas Central Res. 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Racing Club Res. (draw refunded)
71%
Barracas Central Res. (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Racing Club Res. at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.20 · 60 matches

Barracas Central Res. away — creates 0.57, concedes 1.74 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Racing Club Res. attack 1.38 + Barracas Central Res. defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.56

Barracas Central Res. attack 0.57 + Racing Club Res. defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Racing Club Res. scores more
53%
level
25%
Barracas Central Res. scores more
21%

Racing Club Res. at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Racing Club Res. will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

76'
A. Urrutia
90+4'
M. Acevedo

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Reserve League: Racing Club Res. 2–0 Barracas Central Res.

Racing Club Res. beat Barracas Central Res. 2-0 in Reserve League on July 16, 2024.

Goals: A. Urrutia (76'), M. Acevedo (90+4').