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Racing CF Benidorm vs Ontinyent 1931 — Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 2019

Racing CF Benidorm
Racing CF Benidorm
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Ontinyent 1931
Ontinyent 1931
3/23/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 6Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 · Group 6 - 27Estadio Municipal Guillermo Amor

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Racing CF Benidorm33%
×Draw27%
Ontinyent 193140%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Racing CF Benidorm
1.14
Ontinyent 1931
1.29

Ontinyent 1931 creates 13% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 51 away

creates per match

Racing CF Benidorm
1.06
Ontinyent 1931
0.98

allows per match

Racing CF Benidorm
1.59
Ontinyent 1931
1.22

finishing

Racing CF Benidorm+0.00on par
Ontinyent 1931+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Racing CF Benidorm ↓

Ontinyent 1931 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Racing CF Benidorm or draw
60%
Racing CF Benidorm or Ontinyent 1931
73%
Draw or Ontinyent 1931
67%

Winning margin

Racing CF Benidorm wins by 2+
13%
Ontinyent 1931 wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Racing CF Benidorm 1+ goals
68%
Racing CF Benidorm 2+ goals
32%
Racing CF Benidorm 3+ goals
11%
Ontinyent 1931 1+ goals
72%
Ontinyent 1931 2+ goals
37%
Ontinyent 1931 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Racing CF Benidorm (draw refunded)
45%
Ontinyent 1931 (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Racing CF Benidorm at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.59 · 17 matches

Ontinyent 1931 away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.22 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Racing CF Benidorm attack 1.06 + Ontinyent 1931 defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.14

Ontinyent 1931 attack 0.98 + Racing CF Benidorm defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Racing CF Benidorm scores more
33%
level
27%
Ontinyent 1931 scores more
40%

Ontinyent 1931 at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Ontinyent 1931 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 6: Racing CF Benidorm 1–1 Ontinyent 1931

Racing CF Benidorm and Ontinyent 1931 drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 on March 23, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Guillermo Amor in Benidorm.