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Rača vs Nové Mesto nad Váhom — 3. liga - West 2020

Rača
Rača
FT
5 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Nové Mesto nad Váhom
Nové Mesto nad Váhom
Unknown 57', 50' (pen), 47', 6'
8/27/20233. liga - West3. liga - West · West - 4Štadión FK Rača

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Rača53%
×Draw23%
Nové Mesto nad Váhom23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rača
1.77
Nové Mesto nad Váhom
1.08

Rača creates 64% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 54 away

creates per match

Rača
1.78
Nové Mesto nad Váhom
1.07

allows per match

Rača
1.09
Nové Mesto nad Váhom
1.76

finishing

Rača+0.00on par
Nové Mesto nad Váhom+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rača ↓

Nové Mesto nad Váhom →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Rača or draw
77%
Rača or Nové Mesto nad Váhom
77%
Draw or Nové Mesto nad Váhom
47%

Winning margin

Rača wins by 2+
30%
Nové Mesto nad Váhom wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Rača 1+ goals
83%
Rača 2+ goals
53%
Rača 3+ goals
26%
Nové Mesto nad Váhom 1+ goals
66%
Nové Mesto nad Váhom 2+ goals
29%
Nové Mesto nad Váhom 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Rača (draw refunded)
70%
Nové Mesto nad Váhom (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rača at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.09 · 46 matches

Nové Mesto nad Váhom away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.76 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rača attack 1.78 + Nové Mesto nad Váhom defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.77

Nové Mesto nad Váhom attack 1.07 + Rača defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Rača scores more
53%
level
23%
Nové Mesto nad Váhom scores more
23%

Rača at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Rača will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'
47'
50'
Penalty
57'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. liga - West: Rača 5–1 Nové Mesto nad Váhom

Rača beat Nové Mesto nad Váhom 5-1 in 3. liga - West on August 27, 2023.

Goals: ? (6', 47', 50' pen, 57').

The match was played at Štadión FK Rača in Bratislava.