Rača 0–0 Častkovce: Result & Stats | 3. liga - West

Rača

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Častkovce

11/10/2024

3. liga - West · West - 15Štadión FK Rača

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Rača49%

×Draw24%

Častkovce27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RačaExpected goals in this matchČastkovce

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.72

1.21

Rača

1.72

Častkovce

1.21

Rača creates 42% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 85 away

1.78

creates per match

1.32

1.09

allows per match

1.66

creates per match

Rača

1.78

Častkovce

1.32

allows per match

Rača

1.09

Častkovce

1.66

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rača+0.00on par

Častkovce+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rača ↓

Častkovce →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Rača or draw

73%

Rača or Častkovce

76%

Draw or Častkovce

51%

Winning margin

Rača wins by 2+

27%

Častkovce wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Rača 1+ goals

82%

Rača 2+ goals

51%

Rača 3+ goals

25%

Častkovce 1+ goals

70%

Častkovce 2+ goals

34%

Častkovce 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Rača (draw refunded)

65%

Častkovce (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rača at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.09 · 46 matches

Častkovce away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.66 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rača attack 1.78 + Častkovce defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.72

Častkovce attack 1.32 + Rača defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Rača scores more

49%

level

24%

Častkovce scores more

27%

Rača at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Rača will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff