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Rača vs Beluša — 3. liga - West 2020

Rača
Rača
FT
4 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Beluša
Beluša
10/13/20243. liga - West3. liga - West · West - 11Štadión FK Rača

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Rača41%
×Draw25%
Beluša34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rača
1.52
Beluša
1.35

Rača creates 13% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 84 away

creates per match

Rača
1.78
Beluša
1.60

allows per match

Rača
1.09
Beluša
1.25

finishing

Rača+0.00on par
Beluša+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rača ↓

Beluša →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Rača or draw
66%
Rača or Beluša
75%
Draw or Beluša
59%

Winning margin

Rača wins by 2+
20%
Beluša wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Rača 1+ goals
78%
Rača 2+ goals
45%
Rača 3+ goals
20%
Beluša 1+ goals
74%
Beluša 2+ goals
39%
Beluša 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Rača (draw refunded)
55%
Beluša (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rača at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.09 · 46 matches

Beluša away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.25 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rača attack 1.78 + Beluša defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.52

Beluša attack 1.60 + Rača defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Rača scores more
41%
level
25%
Beluša scores more
34%

Rača at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Rača will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Rača vs Beluša

Rača beat Beluša 4-0 in 3. liga - West on October 13, 2024.

The match was played at Štadión FK Rača in Bratislava.