Rabo Peixe 2–1 Sertanense: Result & Stats

Rabo Peixe

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Sertanense

10/16/2022

Taça de Portugal · 3rd RoundCampo Bom Jesus

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Rabo Peixe31%

×Draw28%

Sertanense41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rabo PeixeExpected goals in this matchSertanense

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.07

1.29

Rabo Peixe

1.07

Sertanense

1.29

Sertanense creates 21% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 7 away

1.14

creates per match

1.29

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Rabo Peixe

1.14

Sertanense

1.29

allows per match

Rabo Peixe

1.29

Sertanense

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rabo Peixe+0.00on par

Sertanense+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rabo Peixe ↓

Sertanense →

0–09%

0–112%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2–05%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3–02%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Rabo Peixe or draw

59%

Rabo Peixe or Sertanense

72%

Draw or Sertanense

69%

Winning margin

Rabo Peixe wins by 2+

12%

Sertanense wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Rabo Peixe 1+ goals

66%

Rabo Peixe 2+ goals

29%

Rabo Peixe 3+ goals

Sertanense 1+ goals

72%

Sertanense 2+ goals

37%

Sertanense 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Rabo Peixe (draw refunded)

43%

Sertanense (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Rabo Peixe at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.29 · 7 matches

Sertanense away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.00 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Rabo Peixe attack 1.14 + Sertanense defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.07

Sertanense attack 1.29 + Rabo Peixe defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 41%?"

Rabo Peixe scores more

31%

level

28%

Sertanense scores more

41%

Sertanense at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Sertanense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff