Rabo Peixe 0–0 Oriental Lisboa: Result & Stats

Rabo Peixe

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Oriental Lisboa

1/30/2021

Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group G · Group G - 14Campo Municipal da Ribeira Grande

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Rabo Peixe34%

×Draw33%

Oriental Lisboa34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rabo PeixeExpected goals in this matchOriental Lisboa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.91

Rabo Peixe

0.91

Oriental Lisboa

0.91

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 11 home / 11 away

0.45

creates per match

0.82

1.00

allows per match

1.36

creates per match

Rabo Peixe

0.45

Oriental Lisboa

0.82

allows per match

Rabo Peixe

1.00

Oriental Lisboa

1.36

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rabo Peixe+0.00on par

Oriental Lisboa+0.00on par

Total goals

Under73
Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No64
Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rabo Peixe ↓

Oriental Lisboa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–016%

0–115%

0–27%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–07%

2–16%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (16%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

84%16%1.5

54%46%2.5

27%73%3.5

11%89%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Rabo Peixe or draw

66%

Rabo Peixe or Oriental Lisboa

67%

Draw or Oriental Lisboa

66%

Winning margin

Rabo Peixe wins by 2+

12%

Oriental Lisboa wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Rabo Peixe 1+ goals

60%

Rabo Peixe 2+ goals

23%

Rabo Peixe 3+ goals

6%

Oriental Lisboa 1+ goals

60%

Oriental Lisboa 2+ goals

23%

Oriental Lisboa 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Rabo Peixe (draw refunded)

50%

Oriental Lisboa (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

22%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rabo Peixe at home — creates 0.45, concedes 1.00 · 11 matches

Oriental Lisboa away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.36 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rabo Peixe attack 0.45 + Oriental Lisboa defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 0.91

Oriental Lisboa attack 0.82 + Rabo Peixe defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 34%?"

Rabo Peixe scores more

34%

level

33%

Oriental Lisboa scores more

34%

Rabo Peixe at 34% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 34% does not mean "Rabo Peixe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff