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Rabo Peixe vs Olímpico do Montijo — Taça de Portugal 2018

Rabo Peixe
Rabo Peixe
FT
1 – 0
Olímpico do Montijo
Olímpico do Montijo
9/8/2019Taça de PortugalTaça de Portugal · 1st RoundCampo Municipal da Ribeira Grande

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Rabo Peixe32%
×Draw26%
Olímpico do Montijo43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rabo Peixe
1.23
Olímpico do Montijo
1.48

Olímpico do Montijo creates 20% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 6 away

creates per match

Rabo Peixe
1.14
Olímpico do Montijo
1.67

allows per match

Rabo Peixe
1.29
Olímpico do Montijo
1.33

finishing

Rabo Peixe+0.00on par
Olímpico do Montijo+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rabo Peixe ↓

Olímpico do Montijo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Rabo Peixe or draw
57%
Rabo Peixe or Olímpico do Montijo
74%
Draw or Olímpico do Montijo
68%

Winning margin

Rabo Peixe wins by 2+
13%
Olímpico do Montijo wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Rabo Peixe 1+ goals
71%
Rabo Peixe 2+ goals
35%
Rabo Peixe 3+ goals
13%
Olímpico do Montijo 1+ goals
77%
Olímpico do Montijo 2+ goals
43%
Olímpico do Montijo 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Rabo Peixe (draw refunded)
42%
Olímpico do Montijo (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rabo Peixe at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.29 · 7 matches

Olímpico do Montijo away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rabo Peixe attack 1.14 + Olímpico do Montijo defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.23

Olímpico do Montijo attack 1.67 + Rabo Peixe defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Rabo Peixe scores more
32%
level
26%
Olímpico do Montijo scores more
43%

Olímpico do Montijo at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Olímpico do Montijo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Rabo Peixe vs Olímpico do Montijo

Rabo Peixe beat Olímpico do Montijo 1-0 in Taça de Portugal on September 8, 2019.

The match was played at Campo Municipal da Ribeira Grande in Ribeira Grande.