Rabo Peixe 2–1 Ideal: Result & Stats

Rabo Peixe

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Ideal

P. Obi 90+3' (pen)

Pedro Tavares 40'

D. Nketia 69'

3/10/2021

Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group G · Group G - 12Campo Municipal da Ribeira Grande

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Rabo Peixe43%

×Draw28%

Ideal29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rabo PeixeExpected goals in this matchIdeal

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.00

Rabo Peixe

1.27

Ideal

1.00

Rabo Peixe creates 27% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 11 away

0.45

creates per match

1.00

allows per match

2.09

creates per match

Rabo Peixe

0.45

Ideal

1.00

allows per match

Rabo Peixe

1.00

Ideal

2.09

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rabo Peixe+0.00on par

Ideal+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rabo Peixe ↓

Ideal →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Rabo Peixe or draw

71%

Rabo Peixe or Ideal

72%

Draw or Ideal

57%

Winning margin

Rabo Peixe wins by 2+

19%

Ideal wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Rabo Peixe 1+ goals

72%

Rabo Peixe 2+ goals

36%

Rabo Peixe 3+ goals

14%

Ideal 1+ goals

63%

Ideal 2+ goals

26%

Ideal 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Rabo Peixe (draw refunded)

59%

Ideal (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rabo Peixe at home — creates 0.45, concedes 1.00 · 11 matches

Ideal away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.09 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rabo Peixe attack 0.45 + Ideal defence 2.09 → ÷2 → 1.27

Ideal attack 1.00 + Rabo Peixe defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Rabo Peixe scores more

43%

level

28%

Ideal scores more

29%

Rabo Peixe at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Rabo Peixe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

40'

Pedro Tavares

52'

B. Cipenga← Bernardo Fortunato

52'

Fábio Tavares← Cláudio Braga

66'

Daniel Silva← V. Nikiema

69'

D. Nketia

70'

Diogo Andrade← Jardel

80'

S. Brou← Hugo Moniz

86'

B. Moreno← Ramón Souza

90+3'

João Aragão← Daniel Novais

90+3'

P. ObiPenalty

Rabo

Ideal

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

Manager: Manuel Matias

70'▲Diogo Andrade←▼Jardel

80'▲S. Brou←▼Hugo Moniz

90+3'▲João Aragão←▼Daniel Novais

Rabo Peixe substitutes

AndradeBrouAragão

Manager: Sidónio Ferreira

52'▲B. Cipenga←▼Bernardo Fortunato

52'▲Fábio Tavares←▼Cláudio Braga

66'▲Daniel Silva←▼V. Nikiema

86'▲B. Moreno←▼Ramón Souza

Ideal substitutes

CipengaTavaresSilvaMoreno