Rabo Peixe 0–2 Fontinhas: Result & Stats

Rabo Peixe

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Fontinhas

4/3/2021

Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group G · Group G - 21Campo Municipal da Ribeira Grande

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Rabo Peixe26%

×Draw34%

Fontinhas40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rabo PeixeExpected goals in this matchFontinhas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.72

0.96

Rabo Peixe

0.72

Fontinhas

0.96

Fontinhas creates 33% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 11 away

0.45

creates per match

0.91

1.00

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Rabo Peixe

0.45

Fontinhas

0.91

allows per match

Rabo Peixe

1.00

Fontinhas

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rabo Peixe+0.00on par

Fontinhas+0.00on par

Total goals

Under76
Over24

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No68
Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rabo Peixe ↓

Fontinhas →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–019%

0–118%

0–29%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–05%

2–15%

2–22%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (19%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

81%19%1.5

50%50%2.5

24%76%3.5

9%91%4.5

3%97%

Double chance

Rabo Peixe or draw

60%

Rabo Peixe or Fontinhas

66%

Draw or Fontinhas

74%

Winning margin

Rabo Peixe wins by 2+

8%

Fontinhas wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Rabo Peixe 1+ goals

51%

Rabo Peixe 2+ goals

16%

Rabo Peixe 3+ goals

4%

Fontinhas 1+ goals

62%

Fontinhas 2+ goals

25%

Fontinhas 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Rabo Peixe (draw refunded)

40%

Fontinhas (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

19%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rabo Peixe at home — creates 0.45, concedes 1.00 · 11 matches

Fontinhas away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.00 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rabo Peixe attack 0.45 + Fontinhas defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.72

Fontinhas attack 0.91 + Rabo Peixe defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Rabo Peixe scores more

26%

level

34%

Fontinhas scores more

40%

Fontinhas at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Fontinhas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff