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Rabo Peixe vs Belenenses II — Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group G 2020

Rabo Peixe
Rabo Peixe
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Belenenses II
Belenenses II
11/8/2020Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group GCampeonato de Portugal Prio - Group G · Group G - 6Campo Municipal da Ribeira Grande

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Rabo Peixe35%
×Draw33%
Belenenses II32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rabo Peixe
0.91
Belenenses II
0.86

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 11 home / 11 away

creates per match

Rabo Peixe
0.45
Belenenses II
0.73

allows per match

Rabo Peixe
1.00
Belenenses II
1.36

finishing

Rabo Peixe+0.00on par
Belenenses II+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Under
  • Under74
  • Over26

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rabo Peixe ↓

Belenenses II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–017%
0–115%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (17%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
83%17%1.5
53%47%2.5
26%74%3.5
10%90%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Rabo Peixe or draw
68%
Rabo Peixe or Belenenses II
67%
Draw or Belenenses II
65%

Winning margin

Rabo Peixe wins by 2+
12%
Belenenses II wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Rabo Peixe 1+ goals
60%
Rabo Peixe 2+ goals
23%
Rabo Peixe 3+ goals
6%
Belenenses II 1+ goals
58%
Belenenses II 2+ goals
21%
Belenenses II 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Rabo Peixe (draw refunded)
52%
Belenenses II (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
21%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rabo Peixe at home — creates 0.45, concedes 1.00 · 11 matches

Belenenses II away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.36 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rabo Peixe attack 0.45 + Belenenses II defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 0.91

Belenenses II attack 0.73 + Rabo Peixe defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Rabo Peixe scores more
35%
level
33%
Belenenses II scores more
32%

Rabo Peixe at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Rabo Peixe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Rabo Peixe vs Belenenses II

Rabo Peixe and Belenenses II drew 0-0 in Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group G on November 8, 2020.

The match was played at Campo Municipal da Ribeira Grande in Ribeira Grande.