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Rabo Peixe vs Academico Viseu — Taça de Portugal 2018

Rabo Peixe
Rabo Peixe
FT
0 – 1
Academico Viseu
Academico Viseu
K. Medina 90'
9/28/2019Taça de PortugalTaça de Portugal · 2nd RoundCampo Municipal da Ribeira Grande

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Rabo Peixe25%
×Draw24%
Academico Viseu51%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rabo Peixe
1.12
Academico Viseu
1.70

Academico Viseu creates 52% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 10 away

creates per match

Rabo Peixe
1.14
Academico Viseu
2.10

allows per match

Rabo Peixe
1.29
Academico Viseu
1.10

finishing

Rabo Peixe+0.00on par
Academico Viseu+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rabo Peixe ↓

Academico Viseu →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–210%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Rabo Peixe or draw
49%
Rabo Peixe or Academico Viseu
76%
Draw or Academico Viseu
75%

Winning margin

Rabo Peixe wins by 2+
10%
Academico Viseu wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Rabo Peixe 1+ goals
67%
Rabo Peixe 2+ goals
31%
Rabo Peixe 3+ goals
10%
Academico Viseu 1+ goals
82%
Academico Viseu 2+ goals
51%
Academico Viseu 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Rabo Peixe (draw refunded)
33%
Academico Viseu (draw refunded)
67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rabo Peixe at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.29 · 7 matches

Academico Viseu away — creates 2.10, concedes 1.10 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rabo Peixe attack 1.14 + Academico Viseu defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.12

Academico Viseu attack 2.10 + Rabo Peixe defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Rabo Peixe scores more
25%
level
24%
Academico Viseu scores more
51%

Academico Viseu at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Academico Viseu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

90'
K. Medina

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Rabo Peixe vs Academico Viseu

Academico Viseu beat Rabo Peixe 1-0 in Taça de Portugal on September 28, 2019.

Goals: K. Medina (90').

The match was played at Campo Municipal da Ribeira Grande in Ribeira Grande.