RAAL La Louvière 2–0 SK Beveren: Result & Stats

RAAL La Louvière

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

SK Beveren

10/18/2024

League #145 · Round 8Stade Communal du Tivoli

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

RAAL La Louvière64%

×Draw24%

SK Beveren13%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RAAL La LouvièreExpected goals in this matchSK Beveren

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

0.58

RAAL La Louvière

1.67

SK Beveren

0.58

RAAL La Louvière creates 188% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 6 away

1.33

creates per match

1.17

0.00

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

RAAL La Louvière

1.33

SK Beveren

1.17

allows per match

RAAL La Louvière

0.00

SK Beveren

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

RAAL La Louvière+0.00on par

SK Beveren+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No64
Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

RAAL La Louvière ↓

SK Beveren →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–16%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–110%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–015%

2–19%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–15%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

RAAL La Louvière or draw

87%

RAAL La Louvière or SK Beveren

76%

Draw or SK Beveren

36%

Winning margin

RAAL La Louvière wins by 2+

36%

SK Beveren wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

RAAL La Louvière 1+ goals

81%

RAAL La Louvière 2+ goals

50%

RAAL La Louvière 3+ goals

23%

SK Beveren 1+ goals

44%

SK Beveren 2+ goals

12%

SK Beveren 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

RAAL La Louvière (draw refunded)

84%

SK Beveren (draw refunded)

16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

RAAL La Louvière at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.00 · 3 matches

SK Beveren away — creates 1.17, concedes 2.00 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

RAAL La Louvière attack 1.33 + SK Beveren defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.67

SK Beveren attack 1.17 + RAAL La Louvière defence 0.00 → ÷2 → 0.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

RAAL La Louvière scores more

64%

level

24%

SK Beveren scores more

13%

RAAL La Louvière at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "RAAL La Louvière will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff