RAAL La Louvière 2–1 Excelsior Virton

RAAL La Louvière

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Excelsior Virton

8/10/2024

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Neuer Tivoli

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

RAAL La Louvière61%

×Draw19%

Excelsior Virton20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RAAL La LouvièreExpected goals in this matchExcelsior Virton

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.50

1.38

RAAL La Louvière

2.50

Excelsior Virton

1.38

RAAL La Louvière creates 81% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 4 away

2.00

creates per match

1.00

1.75

allows per match

3.00

creates per match

RAAL La Louvière

2.00

Excelsior Virton

1.00

allows per match

RAAL La Louvière

1.75

Excelsior Virton

3.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

RAAL La Louvière+0.00on par

Excelsior Virton+0.00on par

Total goals

Over74
Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

RAAL La Louvière ↓

Excelsior Virton →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–17%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

74%26%3.5

54%46%4.5

34%66%

Double chance

RAAL La Louvière or draw

80%

RAAL La Louvière or Excelsior Virton

81%

Draw or Excelsior Virton

39%

Winning margin

RAAL La Louvière wins by 2+

40%

Excelsior Virton wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

RAAL La Louvière 1+ goals

92%

RAAL La Louvière 2+ goals

71%

RAAL La Louvière 3+ goals

45%

Excelsior Virton 1+ goals

75%

Excelsior Virton 2+ goals

40%

Excelsior Virton 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

RAAL La Louvière (draw refunded)

75%

Excelsior Virton (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

RAAL La Louvière at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.75 · 4 matches

Excelsior Virton away — creates 1.00, concedes 3.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

RAAL La Louvière attack 2.00 + Excelsior Virton defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.50

Excelsior Virton attack 1.00 + RAAL La Louvière defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

RAAL La Louvière scores more

61%

level

19%

Excelsior Virton scores more

20%

RAAL La Louvière at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "RAAL La Louvière will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff