R&F 0–4 Eastern: Result & Stats | League #380

R&F

FT

0 – 4

HT: 0 – 1

Eastern

Chung Wai Keung 90+3'

Everton Camargo 87'

Afonso 86'

Diego Eli 45+1'

9/14/2019

League #380 · Round 2Yanzigang Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

R&F21%

×Draw21%

Eastern58%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

R&FExpected goals in this matchEastern

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

2.12

R&F

1.21

Eastern

2.12

Eastern creates 75% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 7 away

1.00

creates per match

2.57

1.67

allows per match

1.43

creates per match

R&F

1.00

Eastern

2.57

allows per match

R&F

1.67

Eastern

1.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

R&F+0.00on par

Eastern+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

R&F ↓

Eastern →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–18%

0–28%

0–36%

0–43%

1

1–04%

1–19%

1–210%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

R&F or draw

42%

R&F or Eastern

79%

Draw or Eastern

79%

Winning margin

R&F wins by 2+

8%

Eastern wins by 2+

35%

Team goals

R&F 1+ goals

70%

R&F 2+ goals

34%

R&F 3+ goals

12%

Eastern 1+ goals

88%

Eastern 2+ goals

62%

Eastern 3+ goals

35%

Draw no bet

R&F (draw refunded)

27%

Eastern (draw refunded)

73%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

R&F at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

Eastern away — creates 2.57, concedes 1.43 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

R&F attack 1.00 + Eastern defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.21

Eastern attack 2.57 + R&F defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 2.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

R&F scores more

21%

level

21%

Eastern scores more

58%

Eastern at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Eastern will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

41'

K. K. Tse S.

45+1'

Diego Eli

54'

Lee Ka-Ho

60'

Tiago← M. Lam

60'

Tse Ka Wing← Zhou Yuchen

62'

Chung Wai Keung← Chen Hao-wei

65'

S. Deble

70'

Roberto

72'

Bai He

72'

Yuen Chun Sing← Tse Sean Ka Keung

81'

Lee Ka Yiu← Lee Ka Ho

83'

N. Leung

86'

Afonso

87'

Everton Camargo

88'

Lee Ka-Yiu

90'

Lam Ka Wai← Leung Chun Pong

90+3'

Chung Wai Keung

R&F

Eastern

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Yeung Ching Kwong

60'▲Tiago←▼M. Lam

60'▲Tse Ka Wing←▼Zhou Yuchen

72'▲Yuen Chun Sing←▼Tse Sean Ka Keung

R&F substitutes

TiagoWingSingTingDasWai

Manager: Kin Lee Chi

62'▲Chung Wai Keung←▼Chen Hao-wei

81'▲Lee Ka Yiu←▼Lee Ka Ho

90'▲Lam Ka Wai←▼Leung Chun Pong

Eastern substitutes

KeungYiuWaiToFaiHoMing

League #380: R&F 0–4 Eastern

Eastern beat R&F 4-0 in League #380 on September 14, 2019.

Goals: Diego Eli (45+1'), Afonso (86'), Everton Camargo (87'), Chung Wai Keung (90+3').

The match was played at Yanzigang Stadium in Guangzhou.

R&F vs Eastern — League #380 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

League #380: R&F 0–4 Eastern