Réal Bamako 1–0 Derby Academie: Result & Stats

Réal Bamako

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Derby Academie

5/25/2026

Première Division · Round 22

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Réal Bamako44%

×Draw32%

Derby Academie23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Réal BamakoExpected goals in this matchDerby Academie

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.08

0.69

Réal Bamako

1.08

Derby Academie

0.69

Réal Bamako creates 57% more chances

Season form · 96 home / 13 away

1.31

creates per match

0.69

0.70

allows per match

0.85

creates per match

Réal Bamako

1.31

Derby Academie

0.69

allows per match

Réal Bamako

0.70

Derby Academie

0.85

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Réal Bamako+0.00on par

Derby Academie+0.00on par

Total goals

Under74
Over26

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No67
Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Réal Bamako ↓

Derby Academie →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–017%

0–112%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–113%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–17%

2–22%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

83%17%1.5

53%47%2.5

26%74%3.5

10%90%4.5

3%97%

Double chance

Réal Bamako or draw

77%

Réal Bamako or Derby Academie

68%

Draw or Derby Academie

56%

Winning margin

Réal Bamako wins by 2+

18%

Derby Academie wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Réal Bamako 1+ goals

66%

Réal Bamako 2+ goals

29%

Réal Bamako 3+ goals

10%

Derby Academie 1+ goals

50%

Derby Academie 2+ goals

15%

Derby Academie 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Réal Bamako (draw refunded)

66%

Derby Academie (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

20%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Réal Bamako at home — creates 1.31, concedes 0.70 · 96 matches

Derby Academie away — creates 0.69, concedes 0.85 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Réal Bamako attack 1.31 + Derby Academie defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.08

Derby Academie attack 0.69 + Réal Bamako defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Réal Bamako scores more

44%

level

32%

Derby Academie scores more

23%

Réal Bamako at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Réal Bamako will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff