Røa W 4–1 Arna-Bjørnar W: Result & Stats

Røa W

FT

4 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Arna-Bjørnar W

M. Midtbø 90+2'

J. Klæboe 52'

S. Engås 44'

T. Espås 6'

M. Ivanović 37'

6/3/2023

Toppserien · Round 12Røabanen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Røa W52%

×Draw22%

Arna-Bjørnar W26%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 577,134 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.8% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Røa WExpected goals in this matchArna-Bjørnar W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.96

1.35

Røa W

1.96

Arna-Bjørnar W

1.35

Røa W creates 45% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 45 away

1.04

creates per match

0.96

1.75

allows per match

2.87

creates per match

Røa W

1.04

Arna-Bjørnar W

0.96

allows per match

Røa W

1.75

Arna-Bjørnar W

2.87

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Røa W+0.00on par

Arna-Bjørnar W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Røa W ↓

Arna-Bjørnar W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Røa W or draw

74%

Røa W or Arna-Bjørnar W

78%

Draw or Arna-Bjørnar W

48%

Winning margin

Røa W wins by 2+

30%

Arna-Bjørnar W wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Røa W 1+ goals

86%

Røa W 2+ goals

58%

Røa W 3+ goals

31%

Arna-Bjørnar W 1+ goals

74%

Arna-Bjørnar W 2+ goals

39%

Arna-Bjørnar W 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Røa W (draw refunded)

66%

Arna-Bjørnar W (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Røa W at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.75 · 55 matches

Arna-Bjørnar W away — creates 0.96, concedes 2.87 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Røa W attack 1.04 + Arna-Bjørnar W defence 2.87 → ÷2 → 1.96

Arna-Bjørnar W attack 0.96 + Røa W defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Røa W scores more

52%

level

22%

Arna-Bjørnar W scores more

26%

Røa W at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Røa W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'

37'

44'

52'

63'

69'

69'

69'

A. Nigardsøy← S. Bjørnsen

69'

M. Dalsgård← M. Andresen

72'

M. Johannsdottir← T. Svendheim

81'

B. Bjørlykhaug← T. Espås

90+3'

J. Skogmo← O. Courcy

90+3'

M. Isaksen← C. Bogere

90+3'

I. Didriksen← J. Klæboe

90+2'

M. Midtbø

Røa

Arna-Bjørnar

24

Larsen

23

Hansen

6

Hovland

13

▼

Andresen

4

▼

Ose

14

▼

Svendheim

10

⚽

Ivanović

8

Nøss

9

Aas

22

▼

19

25

3

18

⚽

Engås

4

▼

15

14

7

16

▼

Bogere

22

⚽

▼

Espås

30

▼

Courcy

9

⚽

▼

Klæboe

Manager: G. Nordby

69'▲M. Midtbø←▼S. Masdal

81'▲B. Bjørlykhaug←▼T. Espås

90+3'▲J. Skogmo←▼O. Courcy

90+3'▲M. Isaksen←▼C. Bogere

90+3'▲I. Didriksen←▼J. Klæboe

Røa W substitutes

8Midtbø29Bjørlykhaug5Skogmo13Isaksen33Didriksen2Vik10Haugstad11Renolen12Aspenes

Manager: T. Mork

69'▲H. Stenersen←▼T. Ose

69'▲A. Nigardsøy←▼S. Bjørnsen

69'▲M. Dalsgård←▼M. Andresen

72'▲M. Johannsdottir←▼T. Svendheim

Arna-Bjørnar W substitutes

15Stenersen18Nigardsøy43Dalsgård3Johannsdottir1Norstrøm

Toppserien: Røa W 4–1 Arna-Bjørnar W

Røa W beat Arna-Bjørnar W 4-1 in Toppserien on June 3, 2023.

Goals: T. Espås (6'), M. Ivanović (37'), S. Engås (44'), J. Klæboe (52'), M. Midtbø (90+2').

The match was played at Røabanen in Oslo.

Røa W vs Arna-Bjørnar W — Toppserien 2021

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Toppserien: Røa W 4–1 Arna-Bjørnar W