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Qviding FIF vs Mjallby AIF — Svenska Cupen 2019

Qviding FIF
Qviding FIF
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Mjallby AIF
Mjallby AIF
8/18/2021Svenska CupenSvenska Cupen · 2nd RoundValhalla IP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Qviding FIF9%
×Draw15%
Mjallby AIF75%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Qviding FIF
0.75
Mjallby AIF
2.52

Mjallby AIF creates 236% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 14 away

creates per match

Qviding FIF
1.00
Mjallby AIF
2.79

allows per match

Qviding FIF
2.25
Mjallby AIF
0.50

finishing

Qviding FIF+0.00on par
Mjallby AIF+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Qviding FIF ↓

Mjallby AIF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–110%
0–212%
0–310%
0–46%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–29%
1–38%
1–45%
2
2–01%
2–13%
2–23%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (12%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Qviding FIF or draw
25%
Qviding FIF or Mjallby AIF
85%
Draw or Mjallby AIF
91%

Winning margin

Qviding FIF wins by 2+
2%
Mjallby AIF wins by 2+
53%

Team goals

Qviding FIF 1+ goals
53%
Qviding FIF 2+ goals
17%
Qviding FIF 3+ goals
4%
Mjallby AIF 1+ goals
92%
Mjallby AIF 2+ goals
71%
Mjallby AIF 3+ goals
45%

Draw no bet

Qviding FIF (draw refunded)
11%
Mjallby AIF (draw refunded)
89%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Qviding FIF at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.25 · 4 matches

Mjallby AIF away — creates 2.79, concedes 0.50 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Qviding FIF attack 1.00 + Mjallby AIF defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.75

Mjallby AIF attack 2.79 + Qviding FIF defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 2.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 75%?"

Qviding FIF scores more
9%
level
15%
Mjallby AIF scores more
75%

Mjallby AIF at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "Mjallby AIF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Svenska Cupen: Qviding FIF 0–1 Mjallby AIF

Mjallby AIF beat Qviding FIF 1-0 in Svenska Cupen on August 18, 2021.

The match was played at Valhalla IP in Göteborg.