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Qviding FIF vs IFK Goteborg — Svenska Cupen 2019

Qviding FIF
Qviding FIF
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 2
IFK Goteborg
IFK Goteborg
8/20/2025Svenska CupenSvenska Cupen · 2nd RoundGamla Ullevi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Qviding FIF15%
×Draw18%
IFK Goteborg67%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Qviding FIF
1.03
IFK Goteborg
2.36

IFK Goteborg creates 129% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 17 away

creates per match

Qviding FIF
1.00
IFK Goteborg
2.47

allows per match

Qviding FIF
2.25
IFK Goteborg
1.06

finishing

Qviding FIF+0.00on par
IFK Goteborg+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Qviding FIF ↓

IFK Goteborg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–18%
0–29%
0–37%
0–44%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–210%
1–38%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–25%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Qviding FIF or draw
33%
Qviding FIF or IFK Goteborg
82%
Draw or IFK Goteborg
85%

Winning margin

Qviding FIF wins by 2+
5%
IFK Goteborg wins by 2+
44%

Team goals

Qviding FIF 1+ goals
64%
Qviding FIF 2+ goals
28%
Qviding FIF 3+ goals
9%
IFK Goteborg 1+ goals
90%
IFK Goteborg 2+ goals
68%
IFK Goteborg 3+ goals
41%

Draw no bet

Qviding FIF (draw refunded)
18%
IFK Goteborg (draw refunded)
82%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Qviding FIF at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.25 · 4 matches

IFK Goteborg away — creates 2.47, concedes 1.06 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Qviding FIF attack 1.00 + IFK Goteborg defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.03

IFK Goteborg attack 2.47 + Qviding FIF defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 2.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Qviding FIF scores more
15%
level
18%
IFK Goteborg scores more
67%

IFK Goteborg at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "IFK Goteborg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Qviding FIF vs IFK Goteborg

IFK Goteborg beat Qviding FIF 4-0 in Svenska Cupen on August 20, 2025.

The match was played at Gamla Ullevi in Göteborg.