Quintanar del Rey 2–3 Noblejas: Result & Stats

Quintanar del Rey

2 – 3

HT: 0 – 3

Noblejas

12/14/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 · Group 18 - 15Estadio San Marcos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Quintanar del Rey63%

×Draw21%

Noblejas16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Quintanar del ReyExpected goals in this matchNoblejas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.02

0.89

Quintanar del Rey

2.02

Noblejas

0.89

Quintanar del Rey creates 127% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 17 away

1.63

creates per match

1.12

0.65

allows per match

2.41

creates per match

Quintanar del Rey

1.63

Noblejas

1.12

allows per match

Quintanar del Rey

0.65

Noblejas

2.41

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Quintanar del Rey+0.00on par

Noblejas+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Quintanar del Rey ↓

Noblejas →

0–05%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1–011%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–08%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–04%

4–13%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Quintanar del Rey or draw

84%

Quintanar del Rey or Noblejas

79%

Draw or Noblejas

37%

Winning margin

Quintanar del Rey wins by 2+

39%

Noblejas wins by 2+

Team goals

Quintanar del Rey 1+ goals

87%

Quintanar del Rey 2+ goals

60%

Quintanar del Rey 3+ goals

33%

Noblejas 1+ goals

59%

Noblejas 2+ goals

22%

Noblejas 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Quintanar del Rey (draw refunded)

80%

Noblejas (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Quintanar del Rey at home — creates 1.63, concedes 0.65 · 92 matches

Noblejas away — creates 1.12, concedes 2.41 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Quintanar del Rey attack 1.63 + Noblejas defence 2.41 → ÷2 → 2.02

Noblejas attack 1.12 + Quintanar del Rey defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 63%?"

Quintanar del Rey scores more

63%

level

21%

Noblejas scores more

16%

Quintanar del Rey at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Quintanar del Rey will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 18: Quintanar del Rey 2–3 Noblejas

Noblejas beat Quintanar del Rey 3-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 on December 14, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio San Marcos in Quintanar del Rey.

Quintanar del Rey vs Noblejas — Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 18: Quintanar del Rey 2–3 Noblejas