Quintanar del Rey 1–0 Marchamalo: Result & Stats

Quintanar del Rey

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Marchamalo

5/12/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 · Group 18 - 34Estadio San Marcos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 79+ matches

Quintanar del Rey52%

×Draw27%

Marchamalo22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Quintanar del ReyExpected goals in this matchMarchamalo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

0.84

Quintanar del Rey

1.46

Marchamalo

0.84

Quintanar del Rey creates 74% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 79 away

1.63

creates per match

1.03

0.65

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

Quintanar del Rey

1.63

Marchamalo

1.03

allows per match

Quintanar del Rey

0.65

Marchamalo

1.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Quintanar del Rey+0.00on par

Marchamalo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Quintanar del Rey ↓

Marchamalo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Quintanar del Rey or draw

78%

Quintanar del Rey or Marchamalo

73%

Draw or Marchamalo

48%

Winning margin

Quintanar del Rey wins by 2+

26%

Marchamalo wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Quintanar del Rey 1+ goals

77%

Quintanar del Rey 2+ goals

43%

Quintanar del Rey 3+ goals

18%

Marchamalo 1+ goals

57%

Marchamalo 2+ goals

21%

Marchamalo 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Quintanar del Rey (draw refunded)

70%

Marchamalo (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Quintanar del Rey at home — creates 1.63, concedes 0.65 · 92 matches

Marchamalo away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.29 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Quintanar del Rey attack 1.63 + Marchamalo defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.46

Marchamalo attack 1.03 + Quintanar del Rey defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Quintanar del Rey scores more

52%

level

27%

Marchamalo scores more

22%

Quintanar del Rey at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Quintanar del Rey will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff