Quintanar del Rey 0–0 Manchego: Result & Stats

Quintanar del Rey

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Manchego

2/5/2023

Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 · Group 18 - 19Estadio San Marcos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 92+ matches

Quintanar del Rey48%

×Draw28%

Manchego24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Quintanar del ReyExpected goals in this matchManchego

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

0.85

Quintanar del Rey

1.32

Manchego

0.85

Quintanar del Rey creates 55% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 94 away

1.63

creates per match

1.05

0.65

allows per match

1.01

creates per match

Quintanar del Rey

1.63

Manchego

1.05

allows per match

Quintanar del Rey

0.65

Manchego

1.01

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Quintanar del Rey+0.00on par

Manchego+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Quintanar del Rey ↓

Manchego →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Quintanar del Rey or draw

76%

Quintanar del Rey or Manchego

72%

Draw or Manchego

52%

Winning margin

Quintanar del Rey wins by 2+

22%

Manchego wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Quintanar del Rey 1+ goals

73%

Quintanar del Rey 2+ goals

38%

Quintanar del Rey 3+ goals

15%

Manchego 1+ goals

57%

Manchego 2+ goals

21%

Manchego 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Quintanar del Rey (draw refunded)

66%

Manchego (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Quintanar del Rey at home — creates 1.63, concedes 0.65 · 92 matches

Manchego away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.01 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Quintanar del Rey attack 1.63 + Manchego defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.32

Manchego attack 1.05 + Quintanar del Rey defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Quintanar del Rey scores more

48%

level

28%

Manchego scores more

24%

Quintanar del Rey at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Quintanar del Rey will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff