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Quintanar del Rey vs Atlético Tomelloso — Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 2019

Quintanar del Rey
Quintanar del Rey
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Atlético Tomelloso
Atlético Tomelloso
2/26/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 18Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 · Group 18 - 22Estadio San Marcos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Quintanar del Rey66%
×Draw22%
Atlético Tomelloso12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Quintanar del Rey
1.78
Atlético Tomelloso
0.60

Quintanar del Rey creates 197% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 32 away

creates per match

Quintanar del Rey
1.63
Atlético Tomelloso
0.56

allows per match

Quintanar del Rey
0.65
Atlético Tomelloso
1.94

finishing

Quintanar del Rey+0.00on par
Atlético Tomelloso+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Quintanar del Rey ↓

Atlético Tomelloso →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–16%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–110%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–015%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Quintanar del Rey or draw
88%
Quintanar del Rey or Atlético Tomelloso
78%
Draw or Atlético Tomelloso
34%

Winning margin

Quintanar del Rey wins by 2+
39%
Atlético Tomelloso wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Quintanar del Rey 1+ goals
83%
Quintanar del Rey 2+ goals
53%
Quintanar del Rey 3+ goals
26%
Atlético Tomelloso 1+ goals
45%
Atlético Tomelloso 2+ goals
12%
Atlético Tomelloso 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Quintanar del Rey (draw refunded)
85%
Atlético Tomelloso (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Quintanar del Rey at home — creates 1.63, concedes 0.65 · 92 matches

Atlético Tomelloso away — creates 0.56, concedes 1.94 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Quintanar del Rey attack 1.63 + Atlético Tomelloso defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.78

Atlético Tomelloso attack 0.56 + Quintanar del Rey defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 0.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Quintanar del Rey scores more
66%
level
22%
Atlético Tomelloso scores more
12%

Quintanar del Rey at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Quintanar del Rey will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Quintanar del Rey vs Atlético Tomelloso

Atlético Tomelloso beat Quintanar del Rey 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 on February 26, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio San Marcos in Quintanar del Rey.