Quintanar del Rey 2–1 Almagro: Result & Stats

Quintanar del Rey

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Almagro

12/1/2019

Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 · Group 18 - 16Estadio San Marcos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Quintanar del Rey65%

×Draw22%

Almagro13%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Quintanar del ReyExpected goals in this matchAlmagro

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.81

0.66

Quintanar del Rey

1.81

Almagro

0.66

Quintanar del Rey creates 174% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 29 away

1.63

creates per match

0.66

0.65

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Quintanar del Rey

1.63

Almagro

0.66

allows per match

Quintanar del Rey

0.65

Almagro

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Quintanar del Rey+0.00on par

Almagro+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Quintanar del Rey ↓

Almagro →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–16%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–110%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–014%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–16%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Quintanar del Rey or draw

87%

Quintanar del Rey or Almagro

78%

Draw or Almagro

35%

Winning margin

Quintanar del Rey wins by 2+

38%

Almagro wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Quintanar del Rey 1+ goals

84%

Quintanar del Rey 2+ goals

54%

Quintanar del Rey 3+ goals

27%

Almagro 1+ goals

48%

Almagro 2+ goals

14%

Almagro 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Quintanar del Rey (draw refunded)

83%

Almagro (draw refunded)

17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Quintanar del Rey at home — creates 1.63, concedes 0.65 · 92 matches

Almagro away — creates 0.66, concedes 2.00 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Quintanar del Rey attack 1.63 + Almagro defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.81

Almagro attack 0.66 + Quintanar del Rey defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 0.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Quintanar del Rey scores more

65%

level

22%

Almagro scores more

13%

Quintanar del Rey at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Quintanar del Rey will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 18: Quintanar del Rey 2–1 Almagro

Quintanar del Rey beat Almagro 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 on December 1, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio San Marcos in Quintanar del Rey.

Quintanar del Rey vs Almagro — Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 18: Quintanar del Rey 2–1 Almagro