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Quindio vs Real Santander — Primera B 2018

Quindio
Quindio
FT
4 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Real Santander
Real Santander
2/22/2024Primera BPrimera B · Apertura - 4Estadio Centenario

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 126+ matches

Quindio55%
×Draw26%
Real Santander19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Quindio
1.52
Real Santander
0.78

Quindio creates 95% more chances

Season form · 153 home / 126 away

creates per match

Quindio
1.41
Real Santander
0.73

allows per match

Quindio
0.84
Real Santander
1.62

finishing

Quindio+0.00on par
Real Santander+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Quindio ↓

Real Santander →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Quindio or draw
81%
Quindio or Real Santander
74%
Draw or Real Santander
45%

Winning margin

Quindio wins by 2+
29%
Real Santander wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Quindio 1+ goals
78%
Quindio 2+ goals
45%
Quindio 3+ goals
20%
Real Santander 1+ goals
54%
Real Santander 2+ goals
18%
Real Santander 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Quindio (draw refunded)
74%
Real Santander (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Quindio at home — creates 1.41, concedes 0.84 · 153 matches

Real Santander away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.62 · 126 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Quindio attack 1.41 + Real Santander defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.52

Real Santander attack 0.73 + Quindio defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Quindio scores more
55%
level
26%
Real Santander scores more
19%

Quindio at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Quindio will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Quindio vs Real Santander

Quindio beat Real Santander 4-0 in Primera B on February 22, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Centenario in Armenia.