Quindio 2–1 Águilas Doradas: Result & Stats

Quindio

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Águilas Doradas

7/31/2021

Primera A · Clausura - 3Estadio Centenario

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Quindio40%

×Draw27%

Águilas Doradas33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

QuindioExpected goals in this matchÁguilas Doradas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

1.19

Quindio

1.35

Águilas Doradas

1.19

Quindio creates 13% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 170 away

1.40

creates per match

0.97

1.40

allows per match

1.30

creates per match

Quindio

1.40

Águilas Doradas

0.97

allows per match

Quindio

1.40

Águilas Doradas

1.30

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Quindio+0.00on par

Águilas Doradas+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Quindio ↓

Águilas Doradas →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Quindio or draw

67%

Quindio or Águilas Doradas

73%

Draw or Águilas Doradas

60%

Winning margin

Quindio wins by 2+

19%

Águilas Doradas wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Quindio 1+ goals

74%

Quindio 2+ goals

39%

Quindio 3+ goals

15%

Águilas Doradas 1+ goals

70%

Águilas Doradas 2+ goals

33%

Águilas Doradas 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Quindio (draw refunded)

55%

Águilas Doradas (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Quindio at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.40 · 10 matches

Águilas Doradas away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.30 · 170 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Quindio attack 1.40 + Águilas Doradas defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.35

Águilas Doradas attack 0.97 + Quindio defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Quindio scores more

40%

level

27%

Águilas Doradas scores more

33%

Quindio at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Quindio will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff