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Quierschied vs TuS RW Koblenz — Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar 2020

Quierschied
Quierschied
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
TuS RW Koblenz
TuS RW Koblenz
3/2/2024Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / SaarOberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar · Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar - 25Kunstrasenplatz Quierschied

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Quierschied35%
×Draw24%
TuS RW Koblenz41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Quierschied
1.45
TuS RW Koblenz
1.60

TuS RW Koblenz creates 10% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 53 away

creates per match

Quierschied
1.26
TuS RW Koblenz
1.53

allows per match

Quierschied
1.68
TuS RW Koblenz
1.64

finishing

Quierschied+0.00on par
TuS RW Koblenz+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Quierschied ↓

TuS RW Koblenz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Quierschied or draw
59%
Quierschied or TuS RW Koblenz
76%
Draw or TuS RW Koblenz
65%

Winning margin

Quierschied wins by 2+
16%
TuS RW Koblenz wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Quierschied 1+ goals
77%
Quierschied 2+ goals
42%
Quierschied 3+ goals
18%
TuS RW Koblenz 1+ goals
80%
TuS RW Koblenz 2+ goals
47%
TuS RW Koblenz 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Quierschied (draw refunded)
46%
TuS RW Koblenz (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Quierschied at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.68 · 19 matches

TuS RW Koblenz away — creates 1.53, concedes 1.64 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Quierschied attack 1.26 + TuS RW Koblenz defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.45

TuS RW Koblenz attack 1.53 + Quierschied defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Quierschied scores more
35%
level
24%
TuS RW Koblenz scores more
41%

TuS RW Koblenz at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "TuS RW Koblenz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar: Quierschied 1–3 TuS RW Koblenz

TuS RW Koblenz beat Quierschied 3-1 in Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar on March 2, 2024.

The match was played at Kunstrasenplatz Quierschied in Quierschied.